Probability calibration is the process of calibrating an ML model to return the true likelihood of an event. This is necessary when we need the probability of the event in question rather than its classification.
Image that you have two models to predict rainy days, Model A and Model B. Both models have an accuracy of 0.8. And indeed, for every 10 rainy days, both mislabelled two days. But if we look at the probability connected to each prediction, we can see that Model A reports a probability of 80%, while Model B of 100%.
This means that model B is 100% sure that it will rain, even when it will not, while model A is only 80% sure. It appears that model B is overconfident with its prediction, while model A is more cautious.
And it’s this level of confidence in predictions that makes Model A a more reliable model with respect to Model B; Model A is better despite the two models having the same accuracy.
Model B offers a more yes-or-no prediction, while Model A tells us the true likelihood of the event. And in real life, when we look at the weather forecast, we get the prediction and its probability, leaving us to decide if, for example, a 30% risk of rain is acceptable or not.
You know when you have coded your biggest project and every time it runs you can barely figure out what is doing, only by reading a series of print statements and the creation of strategically saved files?
Well if that is the case, you ought to learn logging and step up your game.
With a proper system of logging. you will have a consistent, ordered and a more reliable way to understand your own code, to time and track its progression and capture bugs easily.
Let’s break down the advantages of logging:
Formatting: Logging allows you to standardize every message using a format of your choosing.
Time tracking: Alongside the message you can add the time when it is generated.
Compact: All messages are gathered in files, you don’t need to scroll up continuously.
Versatility: Print does not work everywhere (i.e., objects without __str__ methods).
Flexibility: Logging allows different levels of importance to your messages so you regulate what to show.
With all of this, you won’t be the only one who can understand your code.
If you have been more than five seconds on r/dataisbeautiful/, you will have probably encountered a Sankey plot. Everyone uses to track their expenses, job searching and every multi step processes. Indeed, it is very suitable to visualize the progression of events and their outcome. And in my opinion, they look great!
Therefore, let’s see how to do in Python: Jupyter Notebook here
How to create a simple weather forecast model using ML and how to find public available weather data with ERA5!
As a data scientist at Intellegens, I work on a plethora of different projects for different industries including materials, drug design, and chemicals. For one particular project looking I was in desperate need of weather data. I needed things like, temperature, humidity, rainfall, etc. Given the spacetime coordinates (date, time and GPS location). And this made me fall into a rabbit hole so deep, that I decided to share it with you!
I thought that finding an API that could give this type of information was going to be easy. I didn’t foresee weather data to be one of the most jealously kept types of data.
If you search for “free weather API”, you will see plenty of similar websites with different services but not actually free and even if there is a free package, it will never have historical weather records.You really need to search hard before finding the Climate Data Store (CDS) web site.
It is not events that disturb people, it is their judgements concerning them.
In last month’s post we saw how it is hard to retain happiness and how this concept might be even misleading; how trivial things can spoil our life and finally how our own thought process can help us to get closer to our goals and to a life worth living.
In this post we will continue our conversation and will look at one of the most famous Stoic quote:
“It is not events that disturb people, it is their judgements concerning them.”
This short sentence is one of the cornerstones of Stoic philosophy, let’s see how:
It is safe to say that you – at least once in your lifetime – have experienced something that you can refer to as happiness.
How long did it last? Not long, I imagine. Perhaps, you uneventfully transitioned to something that resembled ‘normality’, or worse, other issues came up immediately and spoiled your mood.
Even though happiness didn’t last long, it does not stop you from seeking more of it.
But what kind of happiness are you seeking? The immediate kind? Fuelled by sex drugs and rock and roll? Happiness as a reward for your hard work and sacrifice? Maybe by obtaining an object of desire, such as a new house, job, car or spouse? Or are you just, “kinda-okay” – happy to sit and wait?
The choice seems to be between obtaining happiness now, later, or not seeking it at all. With the first, you will be happy immediately and miserable later, with the second, you will be waiting agonic until your goal materialises, and maybe, in the long run, you will feel happier. With the third, you are not even trying.
These are the options, are you ready?
If you haven’t chosen to give up already, maybe there is a better option. Let’s see what ancient Greece and Rome thought about this topic!
This book is far from the usual philosophical book present here, but I think it is interesting to see another aspect of human mind. It’s interesting to see how genetic and upbringing can produce certain individual completely different from the great majority of human beings.
Ronson started his interest in psychopathy almost by random, by a strange book contained inside an unanimous parcel.
He is not the only one who encountered this mysterious book and, around the world, psychiatric and journalist have already received it.
This episode kicks off a spiral of research, interviews and paranoias
that last for almost two years, and that is summarised in this book.
I found this book in the gift bag of the latest Stoicon in Athens, and despite having a huge backlog of books I started reading immediately. I was not particularly familiar with Holiday’s assays, as I haven’t read the other two books of this trilogy.
On the 5 of September took place, in Athens, the 2019 Stoicon! The word conference of Stoicism.
I have been so lucky that I was able to assist it for the second time after last year in London. This was actually the 5th Stoicon ever done. There were: London 2014 and 2015; New York 2016, Toronto 2017 and London 2018.
The next location for 2020, is still to be decided, although, I hope that after Athens, Rome will follow.
Athens is, of course, the perfect city for hosting a conference on an ancient Greek philosophy.
By walking its street and ruins you can have the sense that this was one of the most important birthplace of philosophy, democracy and in general the western civilisation. it has been a constant trill for me.
Besides, the city offers good food and its autumn weather was better of this year summer here in the UK!
This year conference was hosted in the Cotsen Hall of the American School of Classical Studies at Athens.